1.0 Introduction

As discussed in my last post, autonomous vehicle adoption is accelerating with full self-driving mode in regular use on more than one million Tesla vehicles (reflecting a growth rate of 38% year over year) and robotaxis now completing more than 400,000 paid rides a week in major cities across the United States. Therefore, it is inevitable that most transit agencies will soon begin deploying autonomous fleets, especially for microtransit, given the significant and wide-ranging benefits of autonomy. These benefits fall into four broad categories – operating efficiency, road safety, financial performance, and urban management.

2.0 How Does Autonomy Improve the Operating Efficiency of Microtransit?

Fixed-route transit, which began to appear in the US in the 1820s, is designed around predefined routes and schedules, requiring riders to adapt to the system. As fixed routes are optimized for predictability, transit agencies operate large vehicles to support maximum ridership and implement hub-and-spoke design principles for fixed route systems. Because this model depends on large vehicles, complex infrastructure requirements, and specialized labor, fixed-route systems have high fixed cost structures but offer a very low cost per passenger when the system operates at high throughput.

Alternatively, microtransit, which was introduced in the US in 2011, is dispatched in response to actual requests that are made by phone or through a mobile app. Microtransit systems are often dynamic with flexible routes or virtual stops, meaning that routes and schedules can be adapted to demand in real-time. As it is optimized for flexibility, microtransit represents an excellent transit solution for lower-density and underserved areas, and it can also connect riders to fixed- route networks, increasing ridership across the entire transit system. Still, current microtransit systems, which utilize human-driven vehicles and depend on other cost components (e.g., vehicle dispatch, radio communication, and CAD/AVL systems) found in fixed-route transit systems, tend to operate at a relatively high cost per rider.

Fortunately, autonomous microtransit vehicles use advanced sensors, tele-assist capabilities, and real-time monitoring that enable agencies to scale up systems based on demand fluctuations and scale out to support full-coverage community connectivity without incurring the prohibitive variable costs of human-driven microtransit. For example, autonomous microtransit systems are able to (1) reroute vehicles without driver intervention based on real-time demand; (2) optimize the spacing of vehicles dynamically in order to reduce empty miles (or deadheading); (3) operate close to 24/7 without adding significant human resource expense; and (4) reduce operating costs compared to conventional vehicles due to lower maintenance and energy costs required for electric powertrains. Due to such factors, the lifecycle cost per passenger for autonomous transit vehicles is estimated to be as much as 75% lower than the lifecycle cost for human-driven microtransit vehicles.[1]

2.1 Why Do Autonomous Microtransit Systems Have a Strong Safety Profile?

Although they introduce different technical risks that require careful management, autonomous microtransit systems are arguably safer than human-driven ones. The safety advantage stems from the fact that machines have better attention spans, faster reaction times, and greater consistency of operation than humans, meaning that autonomous systems reduce human-error risks, which are the biggest cause of traffic crashes or accidents. Additionally, autonomous systems that combine multiple sensors have redundant, 360-degree situational awareness that human drivers lack. As a result, in real-world deployments, Waymo has experienced 81% fewer crashes per mile than human-driven vehicles.

2.2 How Can Autonomous Microtransit Systems Enhance Transit Agency Financial Performance?

Due to its operating model and cost-efficiency, autonomy enhances the operational and financial performance of microtransit. Hence, with autonomy, transit agencies are better able to realize various strategic benefits inherent to microtransit including market expansion, price optimization, strategic partnerships, and advertising revenue as described below.

• Provide service to riders where and when fixed-route buses are inefficient (e.g., low-density areas and late-night hours), expanding the system’s ridership base, as well as connecting riders to trains and fixed-route bus lines
• Leverage an app-based model to implement flexible pricing models (e.g., peak versus off-peak fares, express or shared ride options, and subscription models) that maximize ridership, and in turn enhance revenue
• Create new revenue streams through partnerships with large employers, corporate parks, event venues, retail complexes, land developers, and colleges & universities
• Enable transit agencies the ability to generate incremental revenue from in-app ads or promotions

2.3 How Can Autonomous Microtransit Systems Support Additional Priorities?

Beyond direct benefits of microtransit service, autonomous transit vehicles represent a unique, cost-effective technology platform to enable a range of additional urban management and intelligent community priorities. In other words, the sensors deployed on autonomous transit vehicles represent an excellent data source for valuable, AI-enabled insights that can enhance a municipality’s revenue and operations, as well as improve the quality of life of its residents. Key use cases include:

3.0 Conclusion

Given the social and economic benefits of autonomy, it is inevitable that soon transit agencies will adopt autonomy and microtransit represents the logical starting point for agencies to deploy autonomous transit. Indeed, autonomous microtransit will provide better transit access to lower-density and underserved areas, as well as connect riders to fixed-route networks which will increase system-wide ridership. Additionally, by deploying autonomous microtransit, agencies can improve the safety profile of their microtransit fleets, improve their financial performance, and create a mobile platform for a range of urban management priorities. Therefore, transit agencies must start now to develop the operational capabilities, which I will discuss in detail in a future blog post, that are essential to the successful deployment of autonomous microtransit.

[1] Ongel, A. et al. (2019), Economic Assessment of Autonomous Electric Microtransit Vehicles, Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11, Issue 3.